Climate change and its effect on the Norwegian herring fishery

Abstract

The effects of climate change on revenues in the Norwegian herring fishery are considered. The catch quota of Norwegian spring spawning herring is assumed to increase by 25% as a result of warming of the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea. Two cases are considered, one with a constant price and one with a quantity-dependent price. The latter relationship is based on data for prices and landings for 1970-2001. The scenario where price and quantity are independent of each other shows that the average gross revenue will increase by about 300 million Norwegian kroner per year. Because price and quantity change randomly over time, the climate induced increase can fluctuate between the extremes of 180 to 450 million kroner per year. The price-quantity dependent models show that a 144 thousand tons climate-induced increase in the Norwegian catches of herring represents a gross value between 100 and 130 million Norwegian kroner per year.