What makes employees trust forecasted numbers?: a case study on how employees make sense of the rolling forecasting process and its effect on trust
Master thesis
Permanent lenke
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2383672Utgivelsesdato
2015Metadata
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Sammendrag
Volatile and changing market conditions have made financial planning tools of increasing
importance for managers and practitioners. In recent years, the use of traditional budgets has
been criticised as a management control tool. New management tools such as rolling
forecasts have arisen. The purpose of this study is to explore how the rolling forecasting
process affects trust in an organization. According to Bergstrand (2009) it is important for
managers to trust each other in order to get the rolling forecast process to work efficiently.
This is in line with Starovic & Jackson (2004) who argue that trust needs to be present in an
organization for the systems to work effectively.
This thesis is a case study exploring the practice of rolling forecasts within an organization –
namely DNV GL. Through qualitative research method, the study aims to get an in-depth
understanding of how the rolling forecasting process is understood and how that influences
trust. Specifically we investigate: a) How employees make sense of the new financial
planning process after introducing rolling forecasts, b) how employees experience that the
rolling forecasting process facilitates trust between levels, c) if employees perceive any
factors as challenging trust in the forecasting process.
Our main findings show that rolling forecasting process influence trust in an organization.
Trust is both facilitated and challenged as a consequence of the use of this management tool.
By looking at trust through the concepts of ability, benevolence and integrity we are able to
identify more specifically what aspects of trust that are influenced. Rolling forecasting
process is understood as facilitating ability at all levels in the organization. On the other hand,
trust in relation to integrity is only found facilitated at the higher levels in the organization.
We explain these findings by looking at the lower level´s understanding of the rolling
forecasting process, which differs from the other levels. Rolling forecasting process
challenges trust in terms of integrity and benevolence. Integrity is found challenged only at
the higher levels. Benevolence is challenged at the lower levels as a result of gaming related
behaviour. The thesis finds that the facilitation or challenge of trust is important as it
influences how the employees use the forecasted numbers.
Beskrivelse
Supervisor: Katarina Kaarbøe.