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dc.contributor.authorMikkelson, Reinhard O.
dc.contributor.authorTronstad, Petter
dc.date.accessioned2006-09-27T09:59:12Z
dc.date.available2006-09-27T09:59:12Z
dc.date.issued2006
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/167619
dc.description.abstractSea borne dry cargo freight demand has in resent years caused high volatility in earnings for dry bulk shipping companies. Much of this derives from the development in the Far East. In this paper we test if some specific economic indicators can be helpful in forecasting freight demand in this region. We assume that the import of iron ore and coal to Japan and South Korea and iron ore imports to China are good proxies for the overall demand of dry bulk shipping trade. In the empirical test we use a combination of OLS regressions and an ARIMA model to view the forecasting abilities on turning points of series. We further use a six months lag on the explainable variables and a Hodrick-Prescott filter to smooth all series. It becomes evident that the indicators do not have the predictive properties we initially hoped for. We do, however, find some common indicators that show significant t-values in relation to the imports. But, because of our rigid test methods we have some problem with autocorrelation for the OLS analysis. Acknowen
dc.format.extent1556550 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoengen
dc.subjectmacroeconomicsen
dc.titleCan leading indicators be used to predict the demand for sea borne dry bulk activity in the Far Easten
dc.typeMaster thesisen


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