Sanctions as a new policy tool: A multiple case study on how sanctions affect trade
Master thesis
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https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3158942Utgivelsesdato
2024Metadata
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- Master Thesis [4487]
Sammendrag
This thesis aims to assess the impact of trade sanctions on the export and import levels in targeted countries by using a multiple case study. The motivation for this research stems from the growing prominence of sanctions as a foreign policy tool and the need to evaluate the effect compared to traditional tools like tariffs. Based on the theoretical framework, our hypothesis was that the imposition of trade sanctions would cause a decrease in both exports and imports in the targeted countries. To examine our hypothesis, we chose to look at countries that have experienced varying degrees of sanctions and thus landed on Iran, Syria, and Russia. We use data from the Global Sanctions Database (GSDB), the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), and the World Bank to examine the changes in exports and imports before, during, and after the sanctions.
Our findings partially align with the theoretical framework and our hypothesis, while also revealing gaps between the model and the empirical evidence. While trade sanctions negatively impact both exports and imports in targeted countries, the severity of this impact varies based on several factors, including the intensity of the sanctions, the countries’ adaptation strategies, and their position in the global trade market. Compared to tariffs, sanctions are more extensive measures which could help explain their broader effects. Our research contributes to the existing literature by providing new insights on how sanctions as a policy tool affects trade in targeted countries. This thesis aims to assess the impact of trade sanctions on the export and import levels in targeted countries by using a multiple case study. The motivation for this research stems from the growing prominence of sanctions as a foreign policy tool and the need to evaluate the effect compared to traditional tools like tariffs. Based on the theoretical framework, our hypothesis was that the imposition of trade sanctions would cause a decrease in both exports and imports in the targeted countries. To examine our hypothesis, we chose to look at countries that have experienced varying degrees of sanctions and thus landed on Iran, Syria, and Russia. We use data from the Global Sanctions Database (GSDB), the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), and the World Bank to examine the changes in exports and imports before, during, and after the sanctions.
Our findings partially align with the theoretical framework and our hypothesis, while also revealing gaps between the model and the empirical evidence. While trade sanctions negatively impact both exports and imports in targeted countries, the severity of this impact varies based on several factors, including the intensity of the sanctions, the countries’ adaptation strategies, and their position in the global trade market. Compared to tariffs, sanctions are more extensive measures which could help explain their broader effects. Our research contributes to the existing literature by providing new insights on how sanctions as a policy tool affects trade in targeted countries.