Assessing Seaborne Trade Patterns & Economic Implications: A Comprehensive Analysis of Seaborne Crude Oil Transport Following the Ukraine-Russia Conflict
Master thesis
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https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3158968Utgivelsesdato
2024Metadata
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- Master Thesis [4508]
Sammendrag
In this thesis, we investigate and analyse the changes in the crude oil tanker trade after the start of the Ukraine-Russia war by utilising aggregated Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. We investigate the changes in crude oil tanker tonne-mile demand from Russian seaborne oil exports compared to OPEC member countries, and global changes in crude oil tanker productivity. To determine the change in tonne-mile demand we employ the Difference-In-Differences method where Russia and OPEC member countries are set as treatment and control groups, respectively. We quantify the changes in tonne-mile per deadweight productivity measure by utilising the fixed-and mixed-effects models. By relying on historical AIS data for crude oil tankers specifically, we can evaluate how the war and the imposed sanctions have affected the global crude oil tanker operations with drawing parallels to the effectiveness of the sanctions.
The utilised techniques identify that Russian tonne-mile demand for crude oil tankers has increased by approximately 250 million tonne-miles per voyage. Furthermore, we conclude that the global crude oil tanker productivity has declined since the start of the war, while for voyages of Russian origin, the productivity has increased by 27%. The war’s effect on productivity has not been uniform across the world. Our thesis contributes to a better understanding of how the war has affected the oil tanker trade isolated from the product tankers that exhibit cargo-switching behaviour. In this thesis, we investigate and analyse the changes in the crude oil tanker trade after the start of the Ukraine-Russia war by utilising aggregated Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. We investigate the changes in crude oil tanker tonne-mile demand from Russian seaborne oil exports compared to OPEC member countries, and global changes in crude oil tanker productivity. To determine the change in tonne-mile demand we employ the Difference-In-Differences method where Russia and OPEC member countries are set as treatment and control groups, respectively. We quantify the changes in tonne-mile per deadweight productivity measure by utilising the fixed-and mixed-effects models. By relying on historical AIS data for crude oil tankers specifically, we can evaluate how the war and the imposed sanctions have affected the global crude oil tanker operations with drawing parallels to the effectiveness of the sanctions.
The utilised techniques identify that Russian tonne-mile demand for crude oil tankers has increased by approximately 250 million tonne-miles per voyage. Furthermore, we conclude that the global crude oil tanker productivity has declined since the start of the war, while for voyages of Russian origin, the productivity has increased by 27%. The war’s effect on productivity has not been uniform across the world. Our thesis contributes to a better understanding of how the war has affected the oil tanker trade isolated from the product tankers that exhibit cargo-switching behaviour.