Rethinking the Collapse in Green Innovation

Abstract

This thesis examines the collapse in green innovation by analyzing patent activity and value for LCE technologies from 1978 to 2020. Previous research has highlighted a sharp decline in patent activity for LCE technologies since 2010, often linked to reduced subsidies and referred to as the "collapse in green innovation". This thesis examines whether the value of LCE patents has also decreased alongside the decline in activity.

The analysis reveals a misalignment between patent activity and the value of innovations. While the "collapse in green innovation" is observed in patent activity, the value of these technologies remains stable. The results also indicate that public subsidies drive an increase in patent activity but have no clear impact on value. Assuming public subsidies for the energy transition are implemented to replace Fossil Fuels, the findings suggest that current subsidies may be suboptimally designed or implemented. Current subsidies seem to be more effective for emission-reduction technologies like CCUS rather than replacement technologies.