In this thesis, we present firm default prediction models based on firm financial statements and macroeconomic variables. We seek to develop reliable models to forecast out-of-sample default probability, and we are ...

We use modern econometric methods to analyze a recently-released sample of 3 000 Chinese grain yields. We find significant variation across provinces and persistent increases in yields over time – albeit slow compared to ...

An ongoing war in Ukraine turned out to be the biggest event of 2022. Allied nations decisively imposed series of sanctions that sent Russian economy into a turmoil. As shock and awe of the first weeks of invasions ...

Cointegration analysis has been used widely to quantify market integration through price arbitrage. We show that total price variability can be decomposed into: (i) magnitude of price shocks; (ii) correlation of price ...

In 1795 the British took control of the Cape colony (South Africa) from the Dutch; and in 1843 they exogenously changed the legal basis of landholding, giving more secure property rights to landholders. Since endowments ...

From 1770 to 1914, the British Government collected weekly price and quantity data for all types of grain traded in many market towns; these ‘Corn Returns’ were published in the London Gazette. We computerised the data ...

We estimate a time series model of weather shocks on English wheat yields for the early nineteenth century and use it to predict weather effects on yield levels from 1697 to 1871. This reveals that yields in the 1690s were ...