Hvorfor var boligkrakket fra august 2007 til desember 2008 av begrenset omfang i Norge? : en empirisk analyse av det norske boligmarkedet, sett i et internasjonalt og historisk perspektiv

Abstract

The main purpose of this master thesis is to investigate the current Norwegian housing market in an international and historical perspective. In particular we investigate the housing market crash that occurred in the Norwegian housing market during the period August 2007 to December 2008, and attempt to uncover important factors that explain why the housing market crash was of so little extent. In addition, we examine whether there is a housing bubble in the Norwegian housing market today. The most important factors that explain why the housing market crash was of so little extent in Norway are:

* The financial crisis was not as deep and long lasting as many feared. The use of financial rescue packages had an instant positive impact.

* Interest rate reductions combined with a low share of fixed-rate loans.

* Norwegian banks’ relatively strict lending policy.

* The tax subsidy attached to the purchase of houses.

* High general standard of living.

* Norwegian households’ positive future expectations (especially related to future wage inflation).

In the analysis we find that various factors suggest there is a housing bubble in the Norwegian housing market today. Both developments in real house prices and estimated P/R coefficients support this suggestion. But we cannot find any significant evidence to suggest an imminent bubble crack.