Vil historien gjenta seg? : en historisk analyse av den store depresjonen 1929 – 1933 og finanskrisen 2007-2009

Abstract

This paper is a descriptive analysis of the Great Depression of 1929-1933 and the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The goal is to conduct a historical analysis of the two crises by examining trends in key variables such as GDP, money supply, wealth and asset prices, international trade, industrial production and monetary and fiscal policy. Then we examine the similarities and differences between the progresses of the crises. The report begins by providing an overview of established crisis theory, which will serve as a backdrop for this study. Further on, we present the crises progress by placing an emphasis on the years before the crisis erupted, and how the economy evolved before it ended in crisis. We will also answer the question introduced by the title of our report. Since the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crises is not over, we will comment on the likelihood of a newly evolving crisis. The analysis shows how the past of both crises can be viewed in the context of the Minsky crisis model. Furthermore, it focuses on incremental development in accordance with Minsky phases and viewing of the key variables that are descriptive of the respective phases. We investigate the importance of the hegemony of power role, especially considering that there was an absence of hegemony power prior to and during the Great Depression. As this analysis looks at the development of the two crises in the light of Minsky and Kindleberger, other analysis, such as other socioeconomic analysis, may give different results than those presented here.