A critical review of the peak oil phenomenon

Abstract

Through this master thesis I have done a critical review of the peak oil phenomenon. My analysis indicates that the production profiles for several countries seem to follow the Hubbert curve, but at the same time the methodology does not give reliable predictions. That means that the Hubbert curve seems better suited to explain the past, rather than predict the future. My further discussion revealed large uncertainties regarding the size of the ultimate resource base, and how long we can expect it to last. It is also an open question whether or not peak oil will occur as a result of geological factors, or if it will arise as a result of other above ground factors. In this context, the thesis found that lack of investments, politics and lapse of demand can all, or in combinations, cause peak oil.