Strategic investment in the supply chain for russian gas : a Shapley value analysis

Abstract

In this thesis I use cooperative game theory – the Shapley value – to analyze the power structure in the supply chain for Russian gas and, furthermore, to evaluate the strategic impact of different investment options for creating new capacities. My results show that the possibilities to increase capacities along the existing tracks in Ukraine and Belarus, in order to bypass one of the transit countries, do not change the balance of power dramatically, whereas a direct, though very costly, link through the Baltic Sea, the Nord Stream pipeline, significantly strengthens Russia’s strategic position. I also look into various factors on demand and supply side and investigate whether the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline may be superfluous.