Vis enkel innførsel

dc.contributor.authorKyvik, André
dc.contributor.authorLangeland, Svein Ove F.
dc.date.accessioned2011-09-20T11:01:01Z
dc.date.available2011-09-20T11:01:01Z
dc.date.issued2011
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/168997
dc.description.abstractDoes forecast behavior differ in business cycles and periods of different monetary policy regimes? This paper explores private sector expert forecasts in Japan from 1989 to 2010 to answer this question. The case study suggests six broad lessons. First, private sector expectations are irrational in contractions and expansions even though they are rational in the full sample. Second, consensus forecasts are more accurate than forecasts based on theoretical models. Third, forecast accuracy differs among macroeconomic variables and is higher in expansions than in contractions. Fourth, experts are not able to predict crises or turning points in the economy. Fifth, the critique of the Bank of Japan doing too little to fight deflation in the 1990s seems harsh. And sixth, the Bank of Japan’s credibility may have been hurt by twice leaving their zero interest rate policy too early.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.subjectfinancial economicsen
dc.titleForecast behavior in business cycles and periods of different monetary policy regimes: a case study of private sector forecasts in Japan from 1989 to 2010en
dc.typeMaster thesisen
dc.subject.nsiVDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Bedriftsøkonomi: 213en
dc.subject.nsiVDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Samfunnsøkonomi: 212en


Tilhørende fil(er)

Thumbnail

Denne innførselen finnes i følgende samling(er)

Vis enkel innførsel