The Norwegian hydropower : what are the drivers and bottlenecks of the small hydropower industry, and how will these further affect the development?

Abstract

The small hydropower industry in Norway is in a critical phase. The el-certificates system has proven to be a strong driver for new hydropower plants, as well as investments in existing plants, but with this system comes uncertainty regarding future revenue and profits. In addition to uncertainties connected to incentives, the price of electricity has fluctuated the past decade, fueling and dampening new investments with its movements. Strict acts and regulations concerning the utilization of rivers and lakes for electricity generation result in time-consuming processes, for both developers and governmental caseworkers, culminating in long waiting lines for possible hydropower projects. With only nine years left for developers to make the el-certificates system, actors in the industry expect a large increase in new electricity generation through new hydropower plants, which can affect both access to materials and the electricity price. In this thesis I have looked at the difficulties the hydropower industry have faced, are facing, and is likely to face in the future, through interviews with developers, and by looking at the industry in a historical perspective. Opinions surrounding the strength of the hydropower industry seem to differ, and there is great uncertainty concerning the future.