Large scale transition from conventional to electric vehicles and the consequences for the security of electricity supply : a demand side analysis of electricity consumption

Abstract

This study investigates how demand-side changes, as a result of a large-scale transition to electric vehicles (EVs), is likely to affect the security of electricity supply in Norway. The study is based on a survey that asked 398 EV-users when they charge their EV during the day and night. By looking at two scenarios for EV market penetration, consumption curves was estimated and analyzed based on power consumption data from 2012. The study finds that the prospected EV-transition is likely to worsen the security of supply, in that the variability in the consumption curve is likely to increase and the frequency balance will therefore be more difficult to maintain, all other factors held constant. The peak demand hours during the winter stand a higher chance of surpassing available installed capacity under the scenarios of EV penetration compared to the power consumption in 2012. The existing plans to improve the Norwegian power grid, increase installed capacity and expand power connections abroad, will likely be sufficient to tackle a large scale transition to EVs and to maintain the security of electricity supply. The study also finds that the power demand from a large EV fleet can potentially improve the security of supply, if EV-users charge their EVs during the hours that are more convenient for the power system, during the night.