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Oslo Real Estate market convergence: a convergence analysis of Oslo’s real estate market between 1987-2015

Presttun, Håvard
Master thesis
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URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2383414
Date
2015
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  • Master Thesis [4207]
Abstract
This paper has tested for beta-convergence in real estate prices between Oslo’s boroughs

in the time period 1987-2015, and investigated which price determinants that affect price

movements between regions.

Both a graphical approach inspired by Baumol (1986), and a cross-region

regression method has been used. The study shows clear indications of absolute

convergence in periods with declining real estate prices, and absolute divergence in

periods with increasing real estate prices. This paper finds no evidence of long-term

absolute convergence or divergence. Oslo’s real estate market can be broken down into

three convergence groups based on structural differences and price movements. The first

group consists of the inner boroughs, the second group consists of the outer west

boroughs and Nordstrand, and the third group consists of the outer east boroughs.

The most important factors for price movements in the short run are migration

and debt gearing. In the long run, structural differences such as: unemployment rates,

education level, and geographical placements, appear to be the most important factors.

New construction appears to be the highest in areas with high growth, or areas with

potential for high price growth. Two boroughs with potential for future high growth in

real estate prices based on the evaluation of this paper are, Gamle Oslo and Nordstrand.
Description
This thesis was written as a part of the Double Degree program between NHH MSc in Economics and Business Administration, Major Financial Economics, and EGADE Master in International Business.

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