|dc.description.abstract||When a downturn hits the cyclical offshore service industry, shipowners attempt to improve
their cash flow and the market balance by laying up vessels. The purpose of this master thesis
is to evaluate how micro- and macro-level determinants affect the lay-up decision for platform
supply vessels (PSV) and anchor handling tug supply vessels (AHTS) in the North Sea. This
is done by investigating how vessel characteristics such as age, size, and technical
specifications, along with market variables including the oil price, spot rates, and utilisation
ratio, affect the probability of a vessel to be laid up and to stay in lay-up. For this analysis,
panel logistic regressions and Cox proportional hazard models are specified.
The results indicate that the market condition is the most important determinant in the lay-up
decision for both PSVs and AHTS vessels. The lay-up probability for a vessel increases when
spot day rates, the oil price, and the share of vessels that is chartered (utilisation) are lowered.
However, some vessel characteristics also have a significant effect, most evidently for PSVs.
In line with my expectations, older, smaller and less fuel efficient PSVs have a higher
probability of being laid-up. For AHTSs, old vessels also seem to have a higher lay-up
probability. Regarding size, the lay-up probability appears to be at the highest for vessels with
around 20,000 brake horsepower, and then decrease for more powerful vessels. Other technical
specifications, does not appear to substantially affect the lay-up decision on an aggregated
level, for neither PSVs nor AHTSs.
This thesis contributes to the limited research on offshore support vessels (OSV) in general,
and specifically the lay-up decision. Most of the previous OSV studies concern rate formation
and vessel routing, while the lay-up decision mainly has been studied for shipping in general
and ignoring vessel-specific factors. The research in this thesis can also be of interest to market
participants, investors and analysts to predict which vessels are most likely to be laid up.||nb_NO