Marine harvest group : strategisk regnskapsanalyse og verdivurdering
Abstract
The purpose of this master’s thesis is to conduct a valuation of the common stockholder
equity in Marine Harvest on December 31, 2016. The valuation will be based on a
fundamental valuation, supplemented by a method of comparables. In the fundamental
valuation we have identified the underlying economic conditions of Marine Harvest, in order
to forecast the pro forma financial statement. The discounted cash flows are then used to
provide an estimated value. In the method of comparables we have used the method of
multiples to provide a supplementary valuation.
To provide the reader with the insight required for the thesis, we start with a presentation of
the fish farming industry and Marine Harvest. The first part of the fundamental valuation is a
strategic analysis of Marine Harvest. Using the PESTEL analysis and Porter's five forces, we
reveal opportunities and threats to the fish farming industry. We use the SVIMA framework
to conduct an analysis of the resources of Marine Harvest. The results of the strategic analysis
are used to identify the sources of the historical strategic advantage of 13.3%.
In Chapters 9 and 10, we forecast the pro forma financial statement based on the normalized
financial statements from the accounting analysis. Our calculations give Marine Harvest a
future strategic advantage of 6.9%. We then prepared value estimates using the equity
method, the capital employed method and the net operating requirement method. After a
convergence of the value estimates and an analysis of uncertainty, we concluded with an
estimated value of 130,053 NOK per share. Our final estimate using the method of
comparables was NOK 154.26 per share.
By weighting the fundamental value estimate by 70% and the comparative value estimate by
30%, we concluded with a final value estimate of 137.32 NOK per share and thus a sell
recommendation.