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The effect of oil prices on housing prices in the Norwegian market

Yiqi, Yu
Master thesis
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http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2454031
Issue date
2017
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  • Master Thesis [2971]
Abstract
The oil industry makes significant impact on Norway’s economy. In 2016, the export value of

crude oil, natural gas and condensate in Norway is around NOK 350 billion, which takes

approximately 47 percent of the total value of Norway’s exports of goods. The oil reserve has

guaranteed long-term economic boom for the country, while the economic growth in turn has

benefited the country’s real estate market, where the house price in Norway has increased 8.3

percent in average in 2016, with hardly any price decline in the recent twenty years.

In this analysis, we try to estimate whether the oil prices have significant impact on the house

prices in Norway, by using an empirical model that intends to explain fluctuation in house

prices using various fundamental variables including oil prices. We also notice the recent

decline in house price in Stavanger, the oil capital in Norway, is closely related to the consistent

low oil price starting from July 2014. Therefore, regional differences in house prices possibly

caused by oil industry distribution in the country is also investigated.

Conclusively, we find that oil prices have significant direct effect on the national house prices,

and that the house prices in regions where the economy relies largely on oil industry are more

sensitive to oil price fluctuations.

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