Norwegian gross domestic product by industry 1830 - 2006 : empirical evidence on Norwegian industrial development and business cycle chronology

Abstract

This thesis seeks to contribute to the historical national accounting and economic history environment in Norway.

First, I present a novel series for Norwegian gross domestic product by industry covering the period 1830 to 2006 in nominal values, and from 1830 to 1970 in real values. Great parts of this thesis is devoted to the construction, source evaluation, and the theoretical and methodology aspects needed for estimation. By comparing the new series to existing series, I find that the new series are fairly consistent, valid and reliable.

Further, the new series constitutes a basis for mapping the Norwegian industrial development and business cycles from 1830 and onwards. By analyzing the changes in the composition of gross domestic product in light of economic history, I find that the new series provides a quite accurate picture and quantification of the structural changes in the Norwegian economy. After comparing the new series to existing historical series of gross domestic product and supplying with supportive statistics and economic literature, I find that the new series tend to mirror the historical business cycles better. By including series of British and Swedish gross domestic product, I manage to distinguish when Norwegian business cycles are coinciding internationally, and when domestic conditions play a larger role.

In the light of historical and more recent literature on economic history, the new series suggest a revision of the historical national accounts published by Statistics Norway, as first suggested by Grytten (2015).