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The effect of commodity prices on deforestation in Brazil : an empirical analysis investigating the effect of futures and spot prices for soy and maize on deforestation in Brazilian municipalities

Ringstad, Ingrid Emilie Flessum; Tandberg, Julie Lie
Master thesis
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URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2644866
Date
2019
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  • Master Thesis [3258]
Abstract
In this thesis we aim to provide empirical evidence of the effect of spot and futures prices

on municipal land transition in Brazil. We take advantage of newly developed, detailed,

municipality-level data on land transition, for the whole of Brazil. Additionally, we exploit

data on potential yield for soy and maize in our analysis, and we present two simple

models for two different kinds of land transition to guide our empirical work. We mainly

utilize a First Difference approach to study the effects of both spot and future prices for

soy and maize. We also estimate the effects of our commodity prices for different levels of

potential yield, and investigate the long-term effects of our prices.

Our main findings are that the spot-future spread has a seemingly larger effect on

deforestation than the spot price alone for soy. This contributes to the extensive research

on deforestation in Brazil by suggesting that the price expectations for the future should

be included in further research on Brazilian deforestation. Maize on the other hand, show

more ambiguous effects. Finally, municipalities with higher levels of potential yield seems

to have a more price sensitivity towards land transition. Further, the long-term effects

are larger for deforestation than regrowth of forests.

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