Predicting shipping defaults : an empirical study of the driving forces of default in the shipping industry
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- Master Thesis 
This study empirically investigates the driving forces of default at the time of issue in the shipping industry. By developing a logit model based on a sample of 64 shipping bonds and loans, it is shown that the most important factors in predicting shipping defaults are the financial health of the company and the macroeconomic state of the world. This study contributes to the existing literature by emphasizing the forward-looking features of the model, strengthening the long-range predictive accuracy. For the first time in the shipping literature, VIX is shown to be an important factor when predicting shipping defaults. The study is of interest to banks specializing in shipping, shipping bond investors, and any institution or professional dealing with credit assessment in the shipping industry.