Impact assessment of electric vehicles incentives on EV adoption and road traffic : the cases of Norway and the Netherlands
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- Master Thesis 
The increase in air pollution is a critical issue both at local and global level, as it endangers people’ health and accelerates climate change. The United Nations claimed that to keep global warming at 1.5°C, carbon neutrality must be reached by 2050 and neutrality for all other GHG within the end of the century. One of the main drivers of the increase in greenhouse gas emissions is the combustion of fossil fuels in the transport sector. Electric vehicles potentially present an effective solution to decrease emissions in the sector by substituting internal combustion engines with electric ones in the case of battery electric vehicles or adding dual motors in the case of plug-in electric cars. Electric motors do not directly release polluting substances in the air and their negative externalities can be reduced by charging through renewable energy. To assess the effect of incentives at national and local level on EV adoption, regression models are used and data on registered and sold automobiles is compared before and after the introduction of supporting measures for electric vehicles. To investigate the possible increase in road traffic consequent to favorable electric vehicles’ regulations, data on cars’ mileage is studied by using the same statistical method. The research focuses on the cases of Norway and the Netherlands due to their widespread governmental and local involvement, ambitious environmental goals and data availability. The analysis demonstrates that the adoption of electric vehicles is significantly correlated with national incentives as well as with the authorities’ involvement in raising environmental and commercial awareness. The most effective incentives are financial, decreasing the cost of purchase, while local policies such as the installation of EV charging infrastructures or free ferry rides do not have a significant impact on electric cars’ adoption. Finally, data shows that EV incentives do not increase traffic volumes.