|lia analysed the renewable energy (RE) capacity required in each scenario (and for other variables such as other countries’ production, etc) and then agreed on a transmission capacity for each border and each scenario. Based on these forecasts, I examined the influence of this new REs capacity (based on new transmission line capacity) on exports and on the price. The literature review highlighted the congestion problem due to the intermittent nature of REs. Therefore, in the Belgian case I focused on the situation where RE production was elevated.
After conducting the necessary transformations to ensure relevant results and analysing the relations between these variables when REs production was high, I forecasted the following:
• Exports based on a change in REs capacity installed
• Prices based on a change in REs capacity installed
Finally, I ran an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the forecasted prices as the dependent variable and exports as the independent variable. The purpose was both to determine how the price is influenced by an augmentation of exports due to an increase in REs capacity installed and to identify the differences among scenarios.
The results revealed that in 2040, exports will influence prices negatively three times more than at present. Quantitatively, this development will result in the current decrease in price of 0.0039 €/MWh for each additional MWh of electricity exported becoming a decrease of 0.012 €/MWh by 2040.
Considering the best scenario for Belgium and knowing that its CO2 emission targets are the same as the EU’s, the global climate action (GCA) scenario outcome appears better than the two others. This projection allows for a substantial part of Belgium’s electricity to be produced by renewable energies and limits the seasonality in the production presented in the distributed generation (DG) scenario. This result is due to a better mix in REs installed.