Valuation of Oslo Klatresenter AS : a fundamental analysis of a Norwegian climbing gym company

Abstract

The main goal of this master thesis is to estimate the intrinsic value of one share in Oslo Klatresenter AS as of the 2nd of May 2021. The fundamental valuation technique of adjusted present value was selected as the preferred valuation method. In addition, a relative valuation was performed to supplement the primary fundamental valuation. This thesis found that the climbing gym market in Oslo is likely to enjoy a significant growth rate in the coming years, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in sales volume of 6,76% from 2019 to 2033. From there, the market growth rate is assumed to have reached a steady-state of 3,50%. The period, however, starts with a reduced market size in 2020 and an expected low growth rate from 2020 to 2021 because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on this and an assumed new competing climbing gym opening at the beginning of 2026, OKS AS revenue is forecasted to grow with a CAGR of 4,60% from 2019 to 2033. From there, OKS AS’ revenue is expected to have a steady-state growth rate of 3,50%. Furthermore, OKS AS’ return on invested capital (ROIC) is expected to fluctuate between 13,33% and 25,25% in the period 2022 to 2032, before it stabilises at 24,97% in 2033. Lastly, OKS AS’ adjusted unlevered cost of equity is calculated to be 10,64% (this number includes a small stock premium). Based on the presented factors, this thesis estimated OKS AS’ value per share on the 2nd of May 2021 to be NOK 5 638,94, giving an equity value of NOK 59 659 958. For the recommended trading strategy, a margin of +/- 15% is used because of the many assumptions that have been taken in the estimation process and the illiquidity of the OKS AS shares. Thus, this thesis recommends a buy strategy if the share price is less than NOK 4 793,10, a hold strategy if the share price is between NOK 4 793,10 and NOK 6 484,78, and a sell strategy if the share price is higher than NOK 6 484,78.