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A longitudinal perspective on rolling forecasts & interactions

Holmen, Thea Jarneid; Skurtveit, Ingvild
Master thesis
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Masterthesis.pdf (1.306Mb)
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http://hdl.handle.net/11250/277977
Utgivelsesdato
2014
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  • Master Thesis [3748]
Sammendrag
Increasingly complex and dynamic business environment has led to the introduction of

contemporary management control systems and management accounting innovations, such

as rolling forecasts that is an important tool in the Beyond Budgeting philosophy. This thesis

is a case study exploring the practice of rolling forecasts as a dynamic management tool

within an organization – namely FiGo. Through qualitative research method, the study aims

to get an in-depth understanding of how forecasting information, in a longitudinal

perspective, affects top management interaction. Specifically we investigate: (a) how top

management make use of forecasting information; (b) what changes has affected the

forecasting information and influenced top management discussions; and (c) what challenges

in regards of forecasting processes have affected top management attention.

Our main findings indicate that top management strives that rolling forecasts is used in the

whole organization, and that there is a consistently business understanding. Rolling forecasts

and the forecasting information is an important tool for knowledge sharing, learning, and

reflection at top management level. The study finds that there is a cultural change going on,

together with an anchoring of the Beyond Budgeting mindset, which has led to an increased

business understanding and more accurate forecasting information. However, the top

management faces a big challenge due to variation in the use of rolling forecast, and still

having “old budget mindset” in the organization, which increase the forecasting uncertainty

and decrease forecasting accuracy. The top management has a standardization agenda in

mind, trying to solve these problems, and manage to get comparable forecasting information

from the whole organization. The study finds that there is a decoupling and a tension

between how the top management wants the forecasts to be used, and what the operational

levels in the organization needs.

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