|This thesis explores whether uncertainty regarding electric vehicle incentives impacts
electric vehicle sales. In the late 1990s, the first incentives for electric vehicles were
implemented, and throughout the 2000s, more benefits were introduced. Since then, there
have been several policy changes regarding the incentives, and there is an ongoing political
and public debate about whether these incentives should be continued or not.
To measure uncertainty, we constructed uncertainty indexes. The indexes are based on
newspaper frequency, and they measure monthly uncertainty regarding various electric
vehicle incentives. They are standardized and will take a value between 0 and 100.
This uncertainty measurement was used in three case analyses to see if we could find
any relationship between uncertainty and the sale of new electric vehicles. We conducted
a time series analysis in an attempt to see how uncertainty regarding electric vehicle
incentives, in general, has affected sales in the last decade. In this first attempt, we find
no evidence that there is a relationship in the data. Furthermore, we conducted two
specific case analyses with the difference-in-differences research method. In these analyses,
we wanted to investigate how different levels of uncertainty regarding toll road fees and
parking fees affected the sale. However, as in the first case, we do not get any statistically
significant results, and we cannot conclude whether the uncertainty affects the sale.
Despite the inconclusive results, the thesis provides a framework for decision-making
and offers a thorough literature review of what influences consumers' vehicle choices.
Furthermore, we use this insight to discuss possible explanations for our results both
rational and psychological explanations.
As far as we know, no previous empirical studies have been conducted on the relationship
between uncertainty regarding incentives and sales. We hope this thesis will contribute
with some insight and inspire to further research on the subject.