Assessing Offshore Wind Farm Placements in Norway Is NVE’s current plan optimal – or can we do better?

Abstract

Over the last decade, offshore wind has received increased attention due to global warming and the increase in energy demand. Therefore, it is of the highest interest to develop more renewable energy production to satisfy the increase in energy consumption and reduce global pollution. Even though Norway has excellent hydropower opportunities and is self-sufficient and a leading prosecutor in this field, developing offshore wind is now a goal. In 2020, the Norwegian government opened for wind farm development in Sørlige Nordsjø II and Utsira Nord. The government is also planning to delegate licenses for around 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2040. Luckily enough, as we will see throughout this thesis, the Norwegian wind conditions are outstanding for wind power production. Additionally, the technologies surrounding offshore wind farms have become drastically better, making them both more affordable and effective. This paper aims to explore and perform statistical analyses on potential sites for offshore wind farms in Norway. The thesis will have an “investor perspective” and seek optimal locations to maximise production while minimizing variability and costs. As already mentioned, Sørlige Nordsjø II and Utsira Nord are open for production. We want to use these locations as baselines when researching the other areas to see whether one can outperform them. After selecting our locations through a qualitative analysis, we use the dataset NORA3-WP to explore the maximum power production and create portfolios from the selected locations. Objectively, it is hard to determine whether some locations are better than others, but we have overcome some findings. The interpretation from the results is that the South of Lindesnes is stand-alone best in terms of power production and Sharpe ratio. The portfolio evaluation showed that a combination of all the locations except Utsira Nord creates a minimum varianceand a maximum Sharpe ratio–portfolio. We also provide three scenarios with different weights for locations that would satisfy the government’s goal of producing 120 TWh within 2040. Notably, this thesis is heavily influenced by the “investor perspective”, and the calculations are massively simplified. Further and broader research would be necessary before making any final decisions.