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The Potential of Low-Carbon Hydrogen in Norway : A Linear Programming Analysis of Hydrogen Supply Chains in the Norwegian Energy System Towards 2050

Petrusson, Lars Fredrik E.; Haaland, Jens Ludvig
Master thesis
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URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3055662
Date
2022
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  • Master Thesis [4657]
Abstract
In this thesis, we conducted a linear programming analysis to assess the future potential for

domestic production and consumption of low-carbon hydrogen in Norway. Our analysis is

based on the Institute for Energy Technology’s long-term energy system model “IFE-TIMESNorway"

(ITN), which is intended to describe the Norwegian energy system in its entirety.

Our analysis in ITN has been performed according to the current-best estimates for the technoeconomic

parameters of hydrogen technologies. The primary focus of our data work with the

ITN model has been to expand its range of production technologies by adding steam methane

reformation with carbon capture and storage, colloquially known as “blue hydrogen”. This

allowed us to explore the potential of hydrogen in increased detail compared to prior analyses

with ITN. In our analysis, we have analyzed production and consumption of low-carbon

hydrogen, and how it flows through the energy system from a supply chain perspective. This

has been analyzed through a variety of model runs intended to capture contrasting energy

futures. The primary years of our analysis cover the interval 2030 to 2050.

The main findings suggest that there is significant potential for low-carbon hydrogen in the

Norwegian energy system towards 2050 in industry, road transport, and maritime transport.

Our results indicate that the highest potential for hydrogen is as a feedstock in the metal- and

chemical industry, for heavy-duty vehicles in road transport, and in the form of ammonia in

maritime transport. The competitiveness of hydrogen is however highly dependent on carbon

pricing as a higher CO2 tax is connected to increased volumes of hydrogen production and

consumption. In addition, the availability of competing zero-emission alternatives is a

significant factor for the potential of hydrogen. For current carbon pricing and its expected

future increases, hydrogen is the cost-effective option for many end-use processes based on

large- and/or small-scale production. However, carbon prices in excess of current and expected

future values are associated with higher volumes and adoption across additional end-use

processes. At large scales, steam methane reformation with carbon capture and storage is the

dominant hydrogen production technology, but its position is challenged by Alkaline

electrolysis if power prices are particularly low. At small scales, a combination of PEM

electrolysis and alkaline electrolysis is generally preferred, but PEM is increasingly

competitive across the model horizon. In addition, our results suggest that hydrogen may be

distributed with trucks, but only for shorter distances within spot price regions.

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