Kan et normprisråd benytte Nasdaq Salmon Index til å fastsette markedspriser for laks som reflekterer et eksportselskaps oppnådde priser? Hva kan forklare avvik mellom selskapets oppnådde priser og Nasdaq Salmon Index?

Abstract

This thesis studies whether market prices for salmon based solely on the Nasdaq Salmon Index accurately reflects the actual prices achieved by a Norwegian salmon exporting company. In 2023, a resource rent tax on farmed salmon was implemented after years of political debate. The tax is designed as a cash flow tax with an effective tax rate of 25%, and the salmons value at the net pen will form the tax base. In 2024, an independent salmon price board will be set to establish common market prices for salmon. The board will be appointed before Christmas 2023 and will prepare the methodology of establishing norm prices until July 1, 2024. It is currently unknown how they will determine the norm prices, but Nasdaq has been mentioned in several public reports. To investigate whether norm prices for salmon based on Nasdaq can reflect achieved prices, we examine the deviation between the company´s achieved prices and Nasdaq for each quality and size. We do this by comparing data collected from one of Norway´s exporting companies, consisting of the company´s transactions of whole fresh salmon from week 14 in 2013 to week 9 in 2022, directly against Nasdaq for the corresponding period. Furthermore, we examine the volatility in the deviation, and the correlation between Nasdaq and the company´s prices for different qualities and sizes. Finally, we conduct linear regressions to uncover various factors leading to systematic deviations between the company´s achieved prices and Nasdaq. Our results indicate that systematic deviations exist between the company´s achieved prices and Nasdaq. For Superior salmon in Europe of the most common sizes, the deviation is minimal but increases for other qualities and sizes, as well as for salmon sold to overseas markets. The regression mainly explains the deviation based on quality and size, but other factors such as season, delivery terms, and overseas markets also have a significant impact. Our findings suggest that norm prices for salmon based solely on Nasdaq will lead to systematic deviations over time, especially for salmon of downgraded quality. We emphasize the need for an independent salmon price board to consider different price formations for various qualities and sizes, as well as other factors that may lead to a lower achieved price, when determining the norm prices of salmon.