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Is the Grass Greener on the Other Side? Impacts of Cross-Border Alcohol Shopping on Tax Revenue

Bergli, Hilde; Zakariassen, Andreas
Master thesis
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URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3133708
Date
2023
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  • Master Thesis [4657]
Abstract
In this thesis, we examine how available cross-border shopping affects Vinmonopolet’s sales

volume and the affiliated loss of tax revenue. Leveraging COVID-19 border closures as an

exogenous shock, it employs an imputation-based differences-in-differences methodology

that offers a clean identification strategy for the causal effect of available cross-border

shopping. We utilize a constructed panel data set with weekly sales data from all 345

Vinmonopolet liquor stores over the period 2018–2022.

The results indicate cross-border alcohol shopping reduces overall Vinmonopolet sales

for treated outlets by 13%, reaching 48% for outlets within 45 minutes of Sweden.

Heterogeneous effects are found across four main alcohol categories; beer, wine, fortified

wine, and spirits. Total estimated tax revenue losses were NOK 871 million in 2019,

driven primarily by lower alcohol excise tax receipts. The findings have implications for

Norwegian alcohol policy and addressing the trade-off between public health goals and

mitigating tax leakage from cross-border shopping. Our estimates are robust using several

robustness checks.

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