Blar i NHH Brage på forfatter "Ådland, Roar Os"
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A logit model for the lay-up decision in the north sea Offshore rig market
Skeide, Markus; Horn, Helge (Master thesis, 2017)The thesis examines the lay-up decision in the North Sea offshore rig market from 2010 through march 2017. Using empirical analysis, we have specified a logistic regression model to investigate how rig characteristics, ... -
AIS data and the price of oil : a study of predictive feasability
Flaate, Aslak Wøllo; Nikitina, Maria (Master thesis, 2018)Compared to the oil market, physical movement of oil-carrying vessels is very precise and reflects the real production rates more timely than official reports. In this paper, we examine whether detailed information on ... -
Are AIS-based trade volume estimates reliable? The case of crude oil exports
Ådland, Roar Os; Jia, Haiying; Strandenes, Siri Pettersen (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2017)Most global trade statistics in the public domain refer to official customs data, which are not generally available on a micro (individual cargo) level. With the increasing availability and completeness of ship positioning ... -
Asset bubbles in shipping? : an analysis of recent history in the drybulk market
Ådland, Roar Os; Jia, Haiying; Strandenes, Siri Pettersen (Discussion paper, Working paper, 2006-03)The purpose of this paper is to investigate the hypothesis that the supercycle in the drybulk freight market between 2003 and 2005 caused asset values in the second -hand market to deviate from underlying fundamentals. ... -
Breaking the barriers : operational measures for the decarbonization of shipping : a study on barriers to operational energy efficiency measures
Holsvik, Eline Hagen; Williksen, Kristina (Master thesis, 2020)Energy efficiency is a key strategy to address the issue of climate change. Operational measures that increase energy efficiency are widely used in shipping, but there is evidence of a gap between the actual implementation ... -
Can you hedge dry bulk stock prices using forward freight agreements? : a study of risk management in the dry bulk shipping stock market
Byrkjeland, Maren Nessen; Eriksen, Tina Marie (Master thesis, 2019)This thesis investigates if forward freight agreements (FFA) can be used to hedge stock price risk in the dry bulk shipping sector. We establish a cointegrated relationship between FFAs and dry bulk stock prices based ... -
Can you hedge ship price risk using freight derivatives? : a study of the dry bulk market
Ameln, Haakon; Børnes, Eirik August (Master thesis, 2018)This thesis investigates the possibility of reducing ship price risk in the dry bulk sector using freight derivatives. We establish a theoretical linkage between ship prices and FFA prices and empirically test this ... -
Determinants in the Lay-Up Decision: An empirical study on offshore support vessels
Sværen, Oda Aspebakken (Master thesis, 2017)When a downturn hits the cyclical offshore service industry, shipowners attempt to improve their cash flow and the market balance by laying up vessels. The purpose of this master thesis is to evaluate how micro- and ... -
A discrete-time stochastic partial equilibrium model of the spot freight market
Ådland, Roar Os; Strandenes, Siri Pettersen (Report, Research report, 2004-04)This paper presents a stochastic extension of the classical partial equilibrium models of the spot freight market. The supply in the model is based on microeconomic analysis of the supply characteristics of a given fleet ... -
A discrete-time stochastic partial equilibrium model of the spot freight market
Ådland, Roar Os; Strandenes, Siri Pettersen (Discussion paper, Working paper, 2004-03)This paper presents a stochastic extension of the classical partial equilibrium models of the spot freight market. The supply in the model is based on microeconomic analysis of the supply characteristics of a given fleet ... -
Does fuel efficiency pay? Empirical evidence from the drybulk timecharter market revisited
Ådland, Roar Os; Alger, Harrison Marshall; Banyte, Justina; Jia, Haiying (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2017)The time charter market for ships represents a classical example of the principal-agent problem, where shipowners can opt to invest in energy efficient ships, yet any savings in fuel expenditures accrue to the charterers. ... -
Estimating vessel environmental performance : a machine learning approach for predicting vessel fuel consumption and transparently quantifying the environmental sustainability impact of vessel exhaust gases
Jebsen, Fridtjof Gustav; Mathiesen, Sander Skogsrud (Master thesis, 2020)The shipping industry faces a number of challenges regarding its share of total anthropogenic emissions worldwide. A range of measures have been initiated, both by official and private parties. Nevertheless, there are ... -
FFA hedging in the supramax segment : how alterations of the Baltic supramax index have affected hedging efficiency
Aarheim, Georg Martin Steen; Holseter, Ole Morten (Master thesis, 2018)This thesis studies how altering the composition of the Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) affects the hedging efficiency of forward freight agreements (FFA) traded with the index as underlying. We evaluate the hedging efficiency ... -
Forecasting and trading in the crude tanker FFA market : forecasting and applying trading strategies on crude tanker forward freight agreements using neural networks and AIS-data
Stefanski, Camilla Helle; Tveiti, Erik (Master thesis, 2020)The objective of this thesis is to forecast derivative prices of Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) using machine learning techniques and investigate the profitability of implementing quantitative trading strategies. The ... -
Hedging ship price risk using freight derivatives in the drybulk market
Ådland, Roar Os; Ameln, Haakon; Børnes, Eirik A. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2019)We show that a fixed-maturity time-weighted Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) portfolio should be used to proxy the expected future earnings of a vessel. We investigate the corresponding hedging efficiency when using a ... -
How do microeconomic determinants constitute the freight rate of individual contracts in the VLCC spot market?
Nguyen, Phuong Thi My; Pham, Oanh Thi Hoang (Master thesis, 2020)In this paper, we build a hedonic price model to explain the variation in freight rates in individual contracts using microeconomic data of the VLCC market. Using XGBoost and SHAP values to investigate the importance and ... -
Is the Baltic Dry Index System ready for an upgrade? : a study of freight market indices
Moen, Henrik Kleven; Ullereng, Magnus (Master thesis, 2019)We examine the shipping industry’s need and interest in changing the way that freight market indices are made. Our research is conducted due to recent changes in the shipping industry, with more competition entering the ... -
Machine learning as a decision support system in capesize route optimization : predicting optimal route selection using recurrent neural networks and extreme gradient boosting
Bomholt, Herman Johan; Thune, Torsten Stangeland (Master thesis, 2020)In this thesis, we investigate the applicability of machine learning to predict optimal route decisions for Capesize vessels. Our approach uses windows of historical macroeconomic and market-specific variables to form a ... -
Multivariate modeling and analysis of regional ocean freight rates
Ådland, Roar Os; Benth, Fred Espen; Koekebakker, Steen (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2017)In this paper, we propose a new multivariate model for the dynamics of regional ocean freight rates. We show that a cointegrated system of regional spot freight rates can be decomposed into a common non-stationary market ... -
A non-parametric model of the timecharter-equivalent spot freight rate in the very large crude oil carrier market
Ådland, Roar Os (Working paper, Working paper, 2000-01)The empirical research in this paper uses non-parametric techniques to avoid arbitrary parametric restrictions on the underlying freight rate process. The relevant hypotheses include: mean reverting freight rates in the ...