The ensemble Kalman filter in bioeconomics

Abstract

We demonstrate the power of the Ensemble Kalman Filter in specifying ecosystem models ideal for bioeconomic analysis. Bioeconomic analysis requires models to be relatively simple, but models must still capture the nature and dynamics of the system. With the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we are able to capture complex dynamics in multispecies models with models simple enough to allow further bioeconomic analysis. While bioeconomic analysis has had limited inuence on management decisions, the advent of new methods and the need for high dimensional ecosystem based manage- ment models may make bioeconomic research more relevant in the future. The lter is applied to a ecosystem model of the commercially most im- portant species in the Barents Sea. The simpler, aggregated stochastic biomass models capture the complex dynamics of the pelagic stocks on the level needed for making decisions on for example allowable catches.