A discrete-time stochastic partial equilibrium model of the spot freight market

Abstract

This paper presents a stochastic extension of the classical partial equilibrium models of the spot freight market. The supply in the model is based on microeconomic analysis of the supply characteristics of a given fleet and orderbook, in this case the VLCC fleet, and stochastic demolition and ordering behaviour. Combined with stochastic demand, the model is used to simulate scenarios for the future VLCC spot freight rate.