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Estimating the cost of future global energy supply

Narbel, Patrick A.; Hansen, Jan Petter
Working paper
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URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/194981
Date
2014-03
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  • Discussion papers (FOR) [509]
Abstract
This study produces an attempt to estimate the cost of future global energy supplies. The

approach chosen to address this concern relies on a comparative static exercise of estimating the cost

of three energy scenarios representing di erent energy futures. The rst scenario, the business as usual

scenario, predicts the future energy-mix based on the energy plans held by major countries. The second

scenario is the renewable energy scenario, where as much of the primary energy supply as possible is

replaced by renewable energy by 2050. The cost of the renewable energy generating technologies and

their theoretical potential are taken into account in order to create a plausible scenario. The third

scenario, the nuclear case, is based on the use of nuclear and renewable energy to replace fossil-fuels by

2050. Endogenous learning rates for each technology are modeled using an innovative approach where

learning rates are diminishing overtime. It results from the analysis that going fully renewable would cost

between -0.4 and 1.5% of the global cumulated GDP over the period 2009-2050 compared to a business

as usual strategy. An extensive use of nuclear power can greatly reduce this gap in costs.
Publisher
FOR
Series
Discussion paper;14/14

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