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Disagreement in the Norwegian housing market

Wingate, Alexander; Svensen, Michael
Master thesis
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http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2432865
Utgivelsesdato
2016
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  • Master Thesis [4657]
Sammendrag
Do differences of opinion affect house prices? This thesis investigates how disagreement affects

house prices and housing turnover. We construct a disagreement index using household’s beliefs

on future house price developments. The main contribution of this study is that the household

survey captures real expectations in contrast to many similar studies that use analyst forecasts or

volatility based measures. This study finds that higher disagreement is significantly associated with

lower future house price returns. A one standard deviation increase of disagreement index translates

into a 33.8 basis points lower return the following month. The results are robust when controlling

for Norges Bank key house price determinants. Granger causality tests indicate that disagreement

has a predictive power for house price returns and not vice versa. Disagreement is insignificant in

explaining turnover. Overall, our results lends support to predictions of models with disagreement

and helps highlight the importance disagreement has in explaining price movements.

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