Application of predictive growth curves to global wind capacity : growth drivers and limits

Abstract

Global primary energy demand is likely to increase by half between 2015 and the middle of the 21st century, which will require new energy capacity to cover growth in consumption. Current primary energy supply is dominated by fossil fuels. These sources are limited in quantity and are unevenly distributed on our planet. Additionally, burning fossil fuels creates a negative externality, causing global warming. The international community has agreed, that increased use of fossil fuels to tackle future energy deficit is unsustainable in the long run. Wind power is an unlimited, clean energy resource, which in theory could partly solve the problem of energy shortage. This work analyzes the dynamics of wind power capacity at global and regional level. The main finding is that wind capacity follows a logistic growth trend. This gives an opportunity to discover the saturation level and forecast cumulative installed wind capacity into the first half of the 21st century. The study predicts that wind power will cover less than 1% of global primary energy demand in year 2040. The thesis also points to the key drivers of wind capacity and outlines the contribution of those drivers to the forecast for wind power capacity in year 2040.