A logit model for the lay-up decision in the north sea Offshore rig market

Abstract

The thesis examines the lay-up decision in the North Sea offshore rig market from 2010 through march 2017. Using empirical analysis, we have specified a logistic regression model to investigate how rig characteristics, firm size and market variables affect the decision to both cold- and ready-stack a jackup or a semi-submersible rig. We find that that younger jackups with deep water depth owned by companies with multiple rigs in the North Sea, are less likely to be laid up. In a period with varying market conditions, a higher value of the rig characteristics variable deck load, quarters capacity and blow out preventer (BOP), as well as the specification severe environment, increase the probability of laying up a jackup. For semi-submersibles, we find that younger rigs with a higher value of max water depth and quarters capacity, equipped with self-propulsion, DP-3 system and classified for severe environment, were less likely to be laid up. While a higher value of variable deck load increased the likelihood of cold-stacking a semi-submersible. The regression results show that a higher day rate and expectations for a higher future oil price strongly decrease the likelihood for both jackups and semi-submersibles being laid up. The thesis supplements the existing literature of the offshore rig market. To our knowledge, no economical investigation regarding the lay-up decision have been carried out on the North Sea offshore rig market. This thesis therefore provides a basis for further research of this market. We hope the findings will be of interest for drilling operators when deciding which rig to send into lay-up. In addition, the findings may be of interest for brokers and banks when evaluating rig companies.