Market evaluation for the business model of an electric vehicle aggregator : an analysis of the value of flexibility in the German power markets
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- Master Thesis 
With a rising share of electric vehicles in the German market, adequate adoption of those vehicles through a smart charging approach becomes crucial for the successful integration into the grid. Market integration of electric vehicles via an electric vehicle aggregator could not only avoid demand peaks but could also turn out to be a viable business model. The following thesis will assess whether the German market is attractive for the business model of an electric vehicle aggregator. Starting with a qualitative analysis of the German energy market, the thesis will elaborate on how electric cars could participate in the wholesale and balancing markets. In a quantitative analysis, the paper will then identify patterns in the German energy markets. From this price analysis, the thesis will identify three scenarios for which a bidding optimization will be performed. Scenario A represents the participation of electric vehicles in the balancing markets, Scenario B focuses on demand shifting through smart charging, and Scenario C resembles the dumb charging approach. Thanks to the collaboration with the Nordic start-up Tibber, the optimization includes data on real driving patterns from 152 electric vehicles. While smart charging decreases the charging costs of the observed fleet by around 15%, participation in the balancing market would eliminate the charging costs completely and even lead to additional income for the aggregator. With this result, the German market appears to be more attractive for power aggregators than the Norwegian market, in which Tibber is currently active. Future developments in the German energy sector could strengthen or threaten the business model of an electric vehicle aggregator. While declining prices in the balancing markets are one of the major threats, a further increase in the market share of electric vehicles and a rising degree of intermittent renewable energy production could reinforce the business model.