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Detecting Illegal Arms Trade in South Sudan : A quantitative analysis of arms trade during embargo

Krishnan, Arjun Kumar; Nygaard, Petter Sveen
Master thesis
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URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2986079
Date
2021
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  • Master Thesis [3756]
Abstract
This thesis uses an event study methodology to detect potential embargo violations in South

Sudan based on chains of reactions by individual stocks. The results show that out of 87

companies included in this study, 10 have potentially been involved in illegal arms trade. All

these companies have their headquarters in either the US or China. The thesis also examines

whether members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) are influenced by the

interests of the embargo violating companies headquartered in their country. The results from

a sentiment analysis on American and Chinese speeches at the UNSC show that there is no

consistent behavior suggesting that countries act in the interests of embargo violating

companies. The results also indicate that sentiment analysis alone is inadequate to assess the

behavior of member states in the UNSC meetings. This paper therefore also includes a

quantitative assessment of alternative motives and strategic factors to provide a more

comprehensive understanding of why the UNSC representatives act as they do.

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