Detecting Illegal Arms Trade in South Sudan : A quantitative analysis of arms trade during embargo

Abstract

This thesis uses an event study methodology to detect potential embargo violations in South Sudan based on chains of reactions by individual stocks. The results show that out of 87 companies included in this study, 10 have potentially been involved in illegal arms trade. All these companies have their headquarters in either the US or China. The thesis also examines whether members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) are influenced by the interests of the embargo violating companies headquartered in their country. The results from a sentiment analysis on American and Chinese speeches at the UNSC show that there is no consistent behavior suggesting that countries act in the interests of embargo violating companies. The results also indicate that sentiment analysis alone is inadequate to assess the behavior of member states in the UNSC meetings. This paper therefore also includes a quantitative assessment of alternative motives and strategic factors to provide a more comprehensive understanding of why the UNSC representatives act as they do.