Assessing the Impact of NordLink on Day-Ahead Prices in NO2 and Germany: A Quantile Regression Approach
Master thesis
Permanent lenke
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3023471Utgivelsesdato
2022Metadata
Vis full innførselSamlinger
- Master Thesis [4487]
Sammendrag
This thesis studies the new interconnector NordLink's effect on electricity prices in the
Norwegian price area N 0 2 and in Germany. When examining the cable's price effect, we
assess how the price volatility has developed, whether price convergence between the areas
has occurred, and if the highest price levels in Germany have been reduced. The study is
conducted by estimating a quantile regression model for both areas. In the models, we
control for various factors known to impact day-ahead electricity prices. The variable of
interest is a dummy variable that marks the first exchange of electricity through NordLink,
which allows for a before-after analysis of the cable's price effect on both areas.
Our results indicate that NordLink has had a price-reducing effect in the German market,
while it has increased prices in N0 2 for the given period. Hence, price convergence between
the previously separated markets is seen as an effect of the cable. The results also show
that NordLink has had the most significant impact on German prices at the highest parts
of its distribution, confirming a peak shaving effect. Moreover, the results show decreasing
price volatility in Germany and partial evidence for volatility exacerbation in N02.
Further, the thesis argues that through NordLink, gas and EUAs' effect on electricity
prices in N0 2 has been strengthened. Additionally, we find renewables' downward pressure
on electricity prices to be strengthened in both areas after the opening of NordLink. In
Germany, the price-reducing effect from NordLink is only found in conjunction with
renewables.