The Dynamics in Financial Markets During the Russia- Ukraine War : A quantitative analysis of stock prices in the oil and gas industry

Abstract

This thesis analyses the impact of statements regarding Russian petroleum during the Russia- Ukraine war on stock prices of oil and gas companies in Europe. In addition, the paper analyses differences in this impact on tax haven companies versus companies not in tax havens. Shell is used as a reference point for oil and gas companies in parts of the analysis. The events are divided between statements regarding Shell and statements affecting all oil and gas companies. The statements are given each their predicted reaction. To detect effects of the events we have conducted an event study. The main results collected are: EU’s decisions do impact the stock prices of oil and gas companies in Europe. The effect on Shell appears to be persistent throughout the analyzed event window, while the effect on all the other companies lessens as the shock of war settles. We do not find any evidence of a difference in abnormal returns between companies in tax havens and companies not in tax havens following the statements regarding the wider oil and gas market of the EU.