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From Idealism to Pragmatism: Exploring the Cost Realities of Offshore Wind Development in Norway : A Monte Carlo Approach with Emphasis on Cost Uncertainties

Khosravi, Aria; Kleppe, Jens Mathias Turøy
Master thesis
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URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3095528
Date
2023
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  • Master Thesis [4656]
Abstract
This thesis addresses the inherent uncertainties associated with the cost of offshore wind

deployment in Norway. The primary objective of this study is to provide a realistic estimation

of the comprehensive cost involved in establishing and operating an offshore wind farm while

investigating the influence of uncertainty in key cost variables. To achieve this objective, this

study incorporates historical data from fully commissioned European offshore wind projects

and employs Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the levelized cost of electricity. Furthermore,

a sensitivity analysis is performed to explore the impact of fluctuations in key cost variables.

The findings of this research unveil the potential for the LCOE of a Norwegian offshore wind

farm to exceed previous assessments. This disparity may be attributed to the recent

development of inflation and interest rates. Additionally, the analysis highlights the significant

uncertainties inherent in cost estimation and emphasizes the substantial influence exerted by

the variability in key cost variables. These observations emphasize the importance of

considering the prevailing economic condition when evaluating offshore wind projects.

Considering the Norwegian government’s ambitious plans to allocate significant offshore areas

for wind energy generation, this research highlights the necessity of conducting a

comprehensive assessment before deploying plans.

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