Unraveling the Enigma of Black Swan Events: A Multidisciplinary Examination of Financial and Climatic Extremes : The factors contributing to Black Swan Events and their varying effects

Abstract

Black Swan events (BSE) are events that are highly improbable, unforeseen, and, many times, completely unpredictable and unknowable. The term itself was popularized by Nassim Taleb in his book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2010). The study of extreme events is something that has gained popularity recently, and we aim to add to the growing literature by examining cases of extreme financial events and extreme weather events. We use a Monte Carlo simulation to look at potential extreme weather events in Sindh, Pakistan, to see if there are any changes in the frequency and severity of certain variables given small changes in variable means. With a qualitative and quantitative look at Black Swan events, we find there are some similarities between different systems that can be helpful for preparation and future study of extreme events.