| dc.description.abstract | Black Swan events (BSE) are events that are highly improbable, unforeseen, and, many times,
completely unpredictable and unknowable. The term itself was popularized by Nassim Taleb
in his book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2010). The study of
extreme events is something that has gained popularity recently, and we aim to add to the
growing literature by examining cases of extreme financial events and extreme weather events.
We use a Monte Carlo simulation to look at potential extreme weather events in Sindh,
Pakistan, to see if there are any changes in the frequency and severity of certain variables given
small changes in variable means. With a qualitative and quantitative look at Black Swan
events, we find there are some similarities between different systems that can be helpful for
preparation and future study of extreme events. | en_US |
