• norsk
    • English
  • English 
    • norsk
    • English
  • Login
View Item 
  •   Home
  • Norges Handelshøyskole
  • Thesis
  • Master Thesis
  • View Item
  •   Home
  • Norges Handelshøyskole
  • Thesis
  • Master Thesis
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

The value of adapting to climate change for Norwegian salmonid aquaculture : a scenario-based analysis

Helland, Aleksander
Master thesis
Thumbnail
View/Open
masterthesis.PDF (1.303Mb)
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2586103
Date
2018
Metadata
Show full item record
Collections
  • Master Thesis [4657]
Abstract
The Norwegian aquaculture industry accounts for 6.5 percent of total exports from

Norway. The United Nations projects that by 2030 the world population will grow

to 8.5 billion people. In order to maintain food security, the supply of fish is critical.

Ectotherms such as Atlantic Salmon is highly dependent on the temperature of its

surroundings. Hence, it is important to estimate what the effects of climate change

will have on the Norwegian aquaculture industry.

The aim of this master thesis is to analyze how changes in seasonal temperature

may affect the Norwegian salmonid aquaculture industry. The existing bioeconomic

theory does not consider that mortality rates for salmon is temperature dependent.

The inclusion of temperature dependent mortality rates enables a more

realistic estimation of how the projected changes in temperature due to climate

change will affect the profitability of the Norwegian aquaculture industry. Mortality

rates and price are estimated based on the empirical data obtained and used to

adjust the growth model estimated by Lorentzen and Hannesson (2006) analyzing

data from a controlled experiment executed by feed producers for the aquaculture

industry. By analyzing different scenarios for changes to the seasonal seawater temperatures

in Norway, I will estimate the value of adapting the decision variables to

the changes.

My findings suggest that within the range of projected changes the Norwegian

aquaculture industry will benefit from changes in seasonal temperature even without

it adapting to the changes. This is regardless of how temperatures are affected.

For increases in average temperature between 0.5 and 4 degrees Celsius the beneficial

effects ranges from 6.27 to 28.46 percent increase in the present value of all

future profits. For changes to the amplitude of temperature the beneficial effect

ranges from 1.34 to 8.63 percent, and for changes to both amplitude and average

the effect ranges from 7.44 to 23.36 percent.

By adapting to the changes, the beneficial effects of the projected changes is even

higher. The best adaptation to the scenario based changes to temperature is dependent

on how the temperature changes. The best response to increases in average

temperature is to shorten the rotation time, which yields additional values ranging

from 1.17 percent to 11.90 percent of the current value of the aquaculture industry

for adapting to the projected changes. The best response to increase in amplitude

is to start the rotation earlier, whilst the best response to increase in both amplitude

and average is to shorten rotation and to start the rotation later.

Contact Us | Send Feedback

Privacy policy
DSpace software copyright © 2002-2019  DuraSpace

Service from  Unit
 

 

Browse

ArchiveCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsDocument TypesJournalsThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsDocument TypesJournals

My Account

Login

Statistics

View Usage Statistics

Contact Us | Send Feedback

Privacy policy
DSpace software copyright © 2002-2019  DuraSpace

Service from  Unit