| dc.description.abstract | The Norwegian aquaculture industry accounts for 6.5 percent of total exports from
Norway. The United Nations projects that by 2030 the world population will grow
to 8.5 billion people. In order to maintain food security, the supply of fish is critical.
Ectotherms such as Atlantic Salmon is highly dependent on the temperature of its
surroundings. Hence, it is important to estimate what the effects of climate change
will have on the Norwegian aquaculture industry.
The aim of this master thesis is to analyze how changes in seasonal temperature
may affect the Norwegian salmonid aquaculture industry. The existing bioeconomic
theory does not consider that mortality rates for salmon is temperature dependent.
The inclusion of temperature dependent mortality rates enables a more
realistic estimation of how the projected changes in temperature due to climate
change will affect the profitability of the Norwegian aquaculture industry. Mortality
rates and price are estimated based on the empirical data obtained and used to
adjust the growth model estimated by Lorentzen and Hannesson (2006) analyzing
data from a controlled experiment executed by feed producers for the aquaculture
industry. By analyzing different scenarios for changes to the seasonal seawater temperatures
in Norway, I will estimate the value of adapting the decision variables to
the changes.
My findings suggest that within the range of projected changes the Norwegian
aquaculture industry will benefit from changes in seasonal temperature even without
it adapting to the changes. This is regardless of how temperatures are affected.
For increases in average temperature between 0.5 and 4 degrees Celsius the beneficial
effects ranges from 6.27 to 28.46 percent increase in the present value of all
future profits. For changes to the amplitude of temperature the beneficial effect
ranges from 1.34 to 8.63 percent, and for changes to both amplitude and average
the effect ranges from 7.44 to 23.36 percent.
By adapting to the changes, the beneficial effects of the projected changes is even
higher. The best adaptation to the scenario based changes to temperature is dependent
on how the temperature changes. The best response to increases in average
temperature is to shorten the rotation time, which yields additional values ranging
from 1.17 percent to 11.90 percent of the current value of the aquaculture industry
for adapting to the projected changes. The best response to increase in amplitude
is to start the rotation earlier, whilst the best response to increase in both amplitude
and average is to shorten rotation and to start the rotation later. | nb_NO |
