Climate Change and its effect on the Norwegian cod fishing industry

Abstract

The background for the paper is the expected climate change and its effect on the Norwegian cod fishing industry. Global warming is predicted to increase the stock of cod in the Barents Sea. Oceanographers expect that the total allowable catch (TAC) of Northeast Arctic cod will increase by about 50%. The Norwegian part of the TAC is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons, given the existing relative distribution of quota between Russia, Norway and third countries. During the time period from 1990 to 2001 the average total gross value of the Norwegian landed cod was 2.5 billion kroner (2003-value) per year. The climate induced expansion in the cod stock is expected to increase the landed value by the Norwegian fleet by 0.5-1.0 billion Norwegian kroner (2003-value) per year, depending on how sensitive the price is for changes in quantity.